Do they make more money on average? Does any additional income cover the increase in cost of living? Becoming psychologically poor is much harder than becoming psychologically rich. I doubt that balance of payments goes anywhere near your average Joe’s pocket.
It absolutely does because balance of payments = exchange rate, and average Joe is poor and consumes disproportional part of imported goods vs the rich.
The overwhelming amount of expenses is for domestic products; lumber, food, services, rent, etc. Cheaper foreign shit isn't going to be meaningfully felt by the majority.
The part where the rich come in, is that the rich will disproportionally feel the upside of selling the fuel. The people on below average wage are just going to see prices rise and meager savings dilute, long before their wages grow.
Thats not to say the US isn't going to be well of as history's largest energy producer ever, but the reshuffling is going to be extremely painful for a majority of Americans.
But that’s cosmogony, not cosmology. Cosmology can just explore the cosmos that is there not having to worry about why it came to be. If there’s a causality of causality, then what’s the cause of itself.
It is frontier in the sense it is exploring an unexplored domain. I do agree on questioning the comparatives though. Speed/cost is indeed relevant for problems that can be framed as structured decisions only. The question is, would defining a structured decision model be a structured decision model itself? This would significantly increase the application domain.
I am in the quarter of aphantasics that report no imagined sensations of any kind, no inner sound, smell, taste or touch. I do have some very basic imagery occasionally while dreaming, a bit like Dali’s drawings. Never faces. I am also remarkably bad in remembering faces (or names) but recognise them just fine when recent. I don’t think in words, shapes, or relations. I think in words that are on the tip of my tongue and make sentences in their “rhyming”.
As a non extremist believer, in the sense of believing extremely but not passionate about influencing others’ decisions, life is not disposable in service, “in service” is an available disposition for life. Take what you want of my statement, as I did of yours.
I get that. I'm Jewish. While I'm not an extreme believer, I believe in the framework for human life and dignity that the Torah creates. That Law isn't simply reducible to a "fear of God"; it's a living thing and a toolkit that teaches one generation after another methods to take wisdom and grounding from it and to seek something more, including the paths of rebels like Jesus and agnostics like Einstein.
We don't try to convert people, or even get them to understand. What other people think isn't our responsibility. It's generally not "you must use these tools this way or you're wrong". It's "here's what we got from this".
However, there is a fluctuating source of zealotry and revivalism in our own community that has parallels in Islam and in Christianity. The idea is a very ancient Israelite one, a desert religion tribal idea: There's one God and He's on Your Side. Everyone else is apostate, pagan. This took root way before there were Christian or Muslim concepts of Hell or Heaven. You don't even need those things to condemn other people. There is judgment in Judaism, it's just not generally on the level of converting or killing people who disagree with the beliefs.
I'd submit that more people should be bothered by it if they have the idea that their belief is the only right one.
Zealots will zealot. That is less of a religion issue and more a societal one. People will find something to be fanatical about and religion is the perfect candidate for that, the distance between belief and fanaticism is the easiest to cross. While it’s worth the while to fight extremism, this is more of a maintenance than a completion exercise. With the challenges of our times, as different as we may perceive them, this may be a tough exercise and not necessarily one where focusing on “fixing”religion is the most promising path. The happy times of prosperity and atheism were also the best times to be in a religion. I think the most promising path is to help people not need a God that saves them from the challenges of their day to day lives.
Sure, but what's nice about it is that you don't have to take it all literally. You can take the metaphors, and some of the prescriptions as to how to behave or to best deal with some situations.
That's sort of what a lot of other religions are missing. The idea that it's not literal.
> You can take the metaphors, and some of the prescriptions as to how to behave or to best deal with some situations.
Then I've got better ideas. You kind of need the man in the sky or it's pointless noise.... Ie just a list of personal preferences invented by someone, followed by a bunch more. That's the number one reason god was invented.... To make it so peasants can't argue against the rules
It looks like with religion not in the picture as predominantly as in the past, peasants still don’t argue against the rules. If religion is not needed for control, then your argument is weakened. It also looks like religion has been around before peasants and is present even in relatively flat hierarchy communities and proto-societies where control was less relevant or hard. Historically, power structures co-opt rather than invent religion.
> It looks like with religion not in the picture as predominantly as in the past, peasants still don’t argue against the rules.
The priestly class has become less relevant, yes. I never said it was the only game in town, or the only way to justify force
> It also looks like religion has been around before peasants and is present even in relatively flat hierarchy communities and proto-societies where control was less relevant or hard.
I wouldn't equate that to today's religion. Pagan beliefs about the sun chasing the moon aren't what I'm talking about, I can forgive true misunderstandings about physics and astronomy etc... I'm talking about prohibitive moral codes originating from a ruling class concerning the domestic and mundane
> Historically, power structures co-opt rather than invent religion.
To amplify cgio's point, the historical secret of Judaism's survival, as well as the reason it has been hunted and attacked by empires for millennia, is that it chooses a commitment to a cultural belief system over fitting into the dominant empire culture of its day, and over blind loyalty to a Caesar. Which isn't to say that it also can't be loyal. But it presents an easy target for Caesars, because it is essentially non-conformism bottles as a religion.
Neither Christianity nor Islam, nor any other religion I'm aware of, elevates non-conformism and individual identity and personal responsibility in a similar way. It requires developing a moral or ethical framework that is internal rather than dictated by the group, and that is the nature of Jewish education. God could simply cease to exist - morality is asking questions.
To your point, that includes an acceptance to non-conforming within the religion itself, which is why a large number of people identify as nonreligious. It's a fairly common misconception among Christians and Muslims and atheists who grew up in those religions that
>> You kind of need the man in the sky or it's pointless noise.
That is true if you grew up in a religion that delineates its morality based on what God says to do, or based on a fear of Hell, where the religion or the culture doesn't provide any other reason for acting morally. In that case, once you decide that religion is bunk and God doesn't exist, what is there to keep you from acting like a beast? That's a problem with those religions.
I've struggled to explain the difference with Judaism to Christians I know. What I found was an effective way of saying it was to avoid the word "morality" completely, and use the word "ethics". Maybe you do need the man in the sky to have morals the way Christians conceive of those, but don't lose your ethics just because you find out God is Dead, do you?
I would wager that’s more acceptable if said learning is not in competition with the user. If they didn’t actually produce results but created the model only, then that could be advantageous for users too. But the moment they absorb your work to sell it, or for marketing, it’s a different moral ground.
You have some secret sauce. The model trains on it. Your competitor is solving a similar problem. The model "advantageously" helps them.
Your competitor is happy and continues to pay for the subscription. Sam and Dario just resold your code.
For what it's worth LLMs still suck at reproducing my little secret algorithm/implementation while being able to solve way harder problems. I have a good guess why that's the case.
But now people do, and it still works. How is this dissimilar to controlling the media in the past? Maybe can be more specialised, but superficially at least O don’t see significant content specialisation, rather the opposite, consumption herding.
Which I also think is overblown. The one thing that people can actually agree on is that dynamically setting sticker prices is bad, but nobody actually does this. There's less consensus on whether coupons (targeted or otherwise) are okay, even though they have the exact same effect (ie. $10 w/ $2 targeted coupon vs a Dynamic Price™ of $8).
For practical uses they are there. Arguably the frontier models are worse for some of these practical tasks. And keep in mind, people will use maybe frontier for 1/10th of the work, planning and review, and go open source for rest. The question is if they manage to impose outside us. If not, they are losing competitiveness.
I always thought switching from a SOTA model to a dumber model after planning was a terrible idea.
Mostly I heard this from people who I got the impression have little experience in developing greenfield software with agentic AI. Often the same people who talk about spec frameworks.
I fundamentally disagree with the approach. I believe the ability to autonomously evaluate, test, and adjust during long horizon tasks is critical to using AI efficiently.
Well, it's the enterprise software house pipeline... The software architect writes the spec, hands it down to the implementation team, senior leads, junior devs or offshore teams codes it.
I also disagree with the approach, this is cargo-culting the existing ways of working.
I think that anyone who has not experienced the slow churn of driving a car with the engine light on for years, some duct tape holding something in it, is missing nothing. But I still feel like a child with a base modern family car. It is the hint of time travel we are allowed.
It's not fun or bragging-worthy or anything. The "haha the driver door doesn't open" bits are very different from getting stranded in random places. The only good experience is if you manage to fix it for cheap.
I would argue people getting paid to play chess was a short lived phenomenon anyway if you put it in context. The transition there is less related to the introduction of chess engines and more related to the shift in the media landscape.
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